Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 69.25%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 11.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.97%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.97%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (4.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.