Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 50.16%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 0-1 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.