Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 34

May 6, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giovanni Zini

Cremonese
2 - 0
Spezia

Ciofani (41'), Vasquez (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Agudelo (76'), Ampadu (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Cremonese and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cremonese

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 1-1 Cremonese
Wednesday, May 3 at 8pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Spezia

All competitions

Last Game: Atalanta 3-2 Spezia
Wednesday, May 3 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Having demonstrated the more convincing form of these two strugglers, Cremonese can build on their near-miss in Milan and keep their fight for survival alive. Victory would take them within four points of their ailing visitors; setting up an almighty scrap in the final four rounds. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.

Result
Cremonese	Draw	Spezia
42.77% ( 0.53)	25.54% ( -0.03)	31.69% ( -0.5)

Both teams to score 54.69% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.89% (

-0.05)

49.11% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.82% (

-0.05)

71.18% (

0.05)

Cremonese Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.14% (

0.23)

22.86% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.41% (

0.34)

56.59% (

-0.34)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.9% (

-0.36)

29.1% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.98% (

-0.45)

65.02% (

0.45)

Score Analysis

Cremonese 42.77%

Spezia 31.69%

Draw 25.53%

Cremonese	Draw	Spezia
1-0 @ 9.82% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 4.4% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.15% Total : 42.77%	1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.53%	0-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.48% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.54% Total : 31.69%