We said: Roma 1-0 Lecce
It is surely now or never for a plummeting Roma side, who simply must win at home to their southern rivals.
As Lecce have only scored twice in the first half all season, the hosts can get the job done if they secure a lead that takes some weight off their shoulders.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 53.29%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 21.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
-0.07) 
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