Progreso

4 - 3

Racing

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 34.82% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 (10.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.