Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 48.96%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 27.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.