World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 15, 2024 at 12am UK
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha
Ecuador4 - 0Bolivia
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Uruguay 0-0 Ecuador
Wednesday, October 16 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Wednesday, October 16 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Argentina 6-0 Bolivia
Wednesday, October 16 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Wednesday, October 16 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
We said: Ecuador 2-0 Bolivia
With six wins in a row at home to Bolivia in qualifying, Ecuador will be confident of extending their unbeaten start at home by returning to winning ways after two 0-0 draws last month. Bolivia have the worst defensive record on the continent, having conceded 21 goals in their 10 games so far, and the win in Chile was certainly an outlier that may not be replicated for some time. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 84.4%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 4.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.95%) and 1-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.21%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (1.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Bolivia |
84.4% ( -0.27) | 10.98% ( 0.18) | 4.62% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 39.5% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
