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Asian Cup
Tajikistan national football team
Asian Cup | Round of 16
Jan 28, 2024 at 4pm UK
Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium
United Arab Emirates national football team

Tajikistan
1 - 1
UAE

Hanonov (30')
Khamrokulov (116')
FT
(aet)
Alhammadi (90+5')
Alghassani (69'), Alzaabi (84')
Tajikistan win 5-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Asian Cup clash between Tajikistan and United Arab Emirates, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tajikistan

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Tajikistan 2-1 Lebanon
Monday, January 22 at 3pm in Asian Cup

United Arab Emirates

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Iran 2-1 UAE
Tuesday, January 23 at 3pm in Asian Cup

We say: Tajikistan 1-1 United Arab Emirates (Tajikistan advances on penalties)

 Tajikistan are essentially playing with house money and have nothing to lose, which is not the case for the UAE who have unfinished business, falling at the penultimate hurdle over the past two Asian Cups. Based on recent form and how resilient Tajikistan have been against experienced sides at the Asian Cup, we believe they will keep a cool head when needed and pull off an upset. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for United Arab Emirates had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest United Arab Emirates win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%).

Result
TajikistanDrawUnited Arab Emirates
43.14% (-0.193 -0.19) 27.83% (0.013999999999999 0.01) 29.02% (0.179 0.18)
Both teams to score 46.53% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.98% (0.017000000000003 0.02)59.02% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.51% (0.012 0.01)79.48% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Tajikistan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.88% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09)27.12% (0.096 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.5% (-0.126 -0.13)62.5% (0.124 0.12)
United Arab Emirates Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.83% (0.149 0.15)36.16% (-0.149 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.05% (0.15 0.15)72.95% (-0.151 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Tajikistan 43.13%
    United Arab Emirates 29.02%
    Draw 27.83%
TajikistanDrawUnited Arab Emirates
1-0 @ 12.79% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-1 @ 8.49% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.35% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
3-1 @ 3.7% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.63% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.88% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.21% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.19% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 43.13%
1-1 @ 13.01% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.81% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.32% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 27.83%
0-1 @ 9.97% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.62% (0.031 0.03)
0-2 @ 5.07% (0.038 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.24% (0.02 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.72% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.46% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 29.02%

How you voted: 2nd Group A vs 2nd Group C

2nd Group A
47.8%
Draw
43.5%
2nd Group C
8.7%
23
Head to Head
Mar 25, 2023 6pm
Friendlies 2
UAE
0-0
Tajikistan
Nov 12, 2020 2pm
Friendlies 3
UAE
3-2
Tajikistan
Mabkhout (29', 63' pen.), Saleh (90+3')
Ergashev (10'), Tursunov (20')
Jurabaev (18'), Ergashev (25'), Tursunov (30')
Sep 5, 2020 11pm
Friendlies 2
UAE
P-P
Tajikistan
rhs 2.0
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