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Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 20, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
RheinEnergieStadion
Dortmund logo

FC Koln
0 - 4
Dortmund


Chabot (76'), Thielmann (85')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Malen (12', 61'), Fullkrug (58' pen.), Moukoko (90+2')
Ozcan (27'), Maatsen (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between FC Koln and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Koln

All competitions
Last Game: FC Koln 1-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Darmstadt 0-3 Dortmund
Saturday, January 13 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: FC Koln 0-2 Borussia Dortmund

 Koln's recent home record against Dortmund bodes well for Saturday's contest, but BVB will still be regarded as firm favourites to come out on top. Without the presence of injured duo Selke and Waldschmidt – who have scored seven of Koln's 11 Bundesliga goals this season – the hosts may struggle to pose a threat in the final third against a Dortmund outfit, who have a plethora of attacking options at their disposal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 48.57%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.36%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
FC KolnDrawBorussia Dortmund
29.44%21.98% (0.004999999999999 0) 48.57% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Both teams to score 66.1% (-0.01700000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.4% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)33.6% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.59% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)55.41% (0.023999999999994 0.02)
FC Koln Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.17% (-0.012 -0.01)22.83% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.45% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)56.55% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.66% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)14.34% (0.0089999999999986 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.81% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)42.19% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    FC Koln 29.44%
    Borussia Dortmund 48.57%
    Draw 21.98%
FC KolnDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 6.94% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-0 @ 4.84% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-0 @ 3.57% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 3.42% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 3.32% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 1.76% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.26% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.23% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 29.44%
1-1 @ 9.39% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.74% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 3.27% (0.004 0)
3-3 @ 2.15% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 21.98%
1-2 @ 9.12% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 6.36% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-2 @ 6.17% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 5.9% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 4.36% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-3 @ 4% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.87% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 2.12% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
0-4 @ 1.94%
1-5 @ 1.11% (-0.002 -0)
3-4 @ 1.04% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 48.57%

How you voted: FC Koln vs Dortmund

FC Koln
8.1%
Draw
11.3%
Borussia Dortmund
80.6%
62
Head to Head
Aug 19, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 1
Dortmund
1-0
FC Koln
Malen (88')
Malen (90+1')
> Preview
Mar 18, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 25
Dortmund
6-1
FC Koln
Guerreiro (15'), Haller (17', 69'), Reus (32', 70'), Malen (36')
Selke (42')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
FC Koln
3-2
Dortmund
Kainz (53'), Tigges (56'), Ljubicic (71')
Brandt (31'), Schmitz (78' og.)
> Preview
Mar 20, 2022 6.30pm
Gameweek 27
FC Koln
1-1
Dortmund
Andersson (36')
Ozcan (67'), Duda (76')
Wolf (8')
Wolf (30'), Witsel (43'), Can (47')
> Preview
Oct 30, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 10
Dortmund
2-0
FC Koln
Hazard (40'), Tigges (64')
Meunier (51'), Bellingham (88')

Schmitz (11'), Hubers (56'), Ozcan (82')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern19153158164248
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen19126146262042
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt19114444261837
4Stuttgart199553628832
5RB Leipzig199553429532
6Mainz 05Mainz1994633231031
7Wolfsburg198474234828
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach198383029127
9Werder Bremen197663336-327
10Freiburg198382636-1027
11Borussia DortmundDortmund197573433126
12Augsburg197482334-1125
13St Pauli1962111721-420
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin195591627-1120
15Hoffenheim194692537-1218
16Heidenheim1942132440-1614
17Holstein Kiel1933132848-2012
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1924131743-2610
> Bundesliga Full Table


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