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Bundesliga | Gameweek 14
Dec 9, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
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Dortmund
2 - 3
RB Leipzig

Sule (45+6'), Fullkrug (90+3')
Ozcan (60')
Hummels (15')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bensebaini (32' og.), Baumgartner (54'), Poulsen (90+1')
Simakan (35'), Simons (61'), Openda (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 2-0 Dortmund
Wednesday, December 6 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-4 RB Leipzig

 Goals are to be expected in this highly-anticipated contest as the net has rippled at least three times in 10 of the last 14 meetings between these two teams. Leipzig have had plenty of joy over Dortmund in the last few years and we feel that Rose's men, refreshed after a week off, have the firepower to cause problems in the final third once again when they face a depleted and deflated BVB outfit who have been conceding goals for fun of late. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.57%) and 3-1 (5.46%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
44.5% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09) 21.98% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 33.51% (0.072000000000003 0.07)
Both teams to score 68.38% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.47% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)31.53% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.99% (-0.064 -0.06)53.01% (0.060000000000002 0.06)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.04% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)14.96% (0.051 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.62% (-0.1 -0.1)43.37% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.41% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)19.59% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.48% (0.016999999999996 0.02)51.52% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 44.5%
    RB Leipzig 33.51%
    Draw 21.98%
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 8.62% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 5.57% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 5.46% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.29% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-2 @ 4.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.35% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.59% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.11% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.59% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-3 @ 1.15% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 0.99% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 3.33%
Total : 44.5%
1-1 @ 9.07% (0.012 0.01)
2-2 @ 7.03% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-0 @ 2.93% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 2.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 21.98%
1-2 @ 7.4% (0.013 0.01)
0-1 @ 4.78% (0.015 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.02% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.89% (0.014 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.82% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 2.12% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.64% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 1.56% (0.002 0)
3-4 @ 0.99% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 33.51%

How you voted: Dortmund vs RB Leipzig

Borussia Dortmund
44.2%
Draw
20.9%
RB Leipzig
34.9%
86
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2023 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals
RB Leipzig
2-0
Dortmund
Werner (22'), Orban (90+8')
> Preview
Mar 3, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Dortmund
2-1
RB Leipzig
Reus (21' pen.), Can (39')
Forsberg (74')
> Match Report
Sep 10, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
RB Leipzig
3-0
Dortmund
Orban (6'), Szoboszlai (45'), Haidara (84')
> Preview
Apr 2, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 28
Dortmund
1-4
RB Leipzig
Malen (84')
Hazard (45'), Can (80'), Malen (88')
Laimer (21', 30'), Nkunku (58'), Olmo (86')
Kampl (54')
> Preview
Nov 6, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 11
RB Leipzig
2-1
Dortmund
Nkunku (29'), Poulsen (68')
Adams (40'), Poulsen (65'), Szoboszlai (88')
Reus (52')
Bellingham (31'), Reus (31'), Witsel (38'), Meunier (55'), Moukoko (89')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern18143156154145
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen18125144242041
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt18113442241836
4Stuttgart1895436261032
5RB Leipzig189453227531
6Mainz 05Mainz188463123828
7Wolfsburg188374032827
8Freiburg188372534-927
9Werder Bremen187563134-326
10Borussia DortmundDortmund187473231125
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach187382729-224
12Augsburg186482133-1222
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin185581624-820
14St Pauli1852111421-717
15Hoffenheim184592335-1217
16Heidenheim1842122338-1514
17Holstein Kiel1832132646-2011
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1824121740-2310
> Bundesliga Full Table


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