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Bundesliga
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 12
Oct 29, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena
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Bayern
6 - 2
Mainz

Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Pavard (88')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
Fernandes (34')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Barcelona 0-3 Bayern
Wednesday, October 26 at 8pm in Champions League

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 5-0 FC Koln
Friday, October 21 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayern Munich 3-0 Mainz 05

 We expect Bayern to have too much class for Mainz, despite the visitors' decent form across their last few matches. The Bavarians have won seven of their last eight matches in all competitions since the international break, and they will be determined to return to the top of the Bundesliga and place significant pressure on Union Berlin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 80.13%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.09%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (2.2%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
80.13% (0.081999999999994 0.08) 12.9% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05) 6.97% (-0.031 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.55% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.37% (0.113 0.11)32.63% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.7% (0.13 0.13)54.3% (-0.126 -0.13)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.69% (0.042000000000002 0.04)6.32% (-0.0371 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
76.24% (0.107 0.11)23.76% (-0.102 -0.1)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.75% (0.00099999999999767 0)49.25% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.87%84.13% (0.0039999999999907 0)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 80.12%
    Mainz 05 6.97%
    Draw 12.9%
Bayern MunichDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 11.86% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
3-0 @ 10.92% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.59% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.4% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.74% (0.0040000000000004 0)
4-0 @ 7.54% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 5.34% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
5-0 @ 4.17% (0.02 0.02)
5-1 @ 2.95% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.74% (0.0020000000000002 0)
6-0 @ 1.92% (0.014 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.89% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
6-1 @ 1.36% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.05% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 80.12%
1-1 @ 6.09% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-0 @ 3.11% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.98% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 12.9%
0-1 @ 2.2% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 2.16% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 6.97%

How you voted: Bayern vs Mainz

Bayern Munich
85.1%
Draw
7.4%
Mainz 05
7.4%
121
Head to Head
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Mainz 05
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
Dec 11, 2021 2.30pm
Bayern
2-1
Mainz 05
Coman (53'), Musiala (74')
Musiala (27'), Sane (36'), Hernandez (56')
Onisiwo (22')
Stach (59'), Hack (89'), Stoger (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 24, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz 05
2-1
Bayern
Burkardt (3'), Quaison (37')
Mwene (58'), St Juste (59'), da Costa (87')
Lewandowski (90+4')
Boateng (36'), Goretzka (41'), Alaba (42'), Lewandowski (73')
Jan 3, 2021 5pm
Bayern
5-2
Mainz 05
Kimmich (50'), Sane (55'), Sule (70'), Lewandowski (76' pen., 83')
Boateng (32'), Alaba (62')
Burkardt (32'), Hack (44')
Boetius (59')
Feb 1, 2020 2.30pm
Mainz 05
1-3
Bayern
St Juste (45')
St Juste (57'), Boetius (87'), Latza (88')
Lewandowski (8'), Muller (14'), Alcantara (26')
Goretzka (64')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern16123148133539
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen16105140231735
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1693436231330
4RB Leipzig169342822630
5Mainz 05Mainz1684430201028
6Freiburg168352426-227
7Stuttgart167543025526
8Borussia DortmundDortmund167453025525
9Werder Bremen167452829-125
10Wolfsburg167363328524
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach167362521424
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin164571421-717
13Augsburg164481733-1616
14St Pauli1642101220-814
15Hoffenheim163582029-914
16Heidenheim1641112033-1313
17Holstein Kiel1622122141-208
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1613121337-246
> Bundesliga Full Table


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