Bundesliga | Gameweek 9
Oct 28, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
We said: RB Leipzig 3-1 FC Koln
Koln's maiden victory last weekend has given them a timely boost heading into a tricky encounter with Leipzig, but the Billy Goats will be regarded as the underdogs on Saturday.
Die Roten Bullen have been frustrated by Koln in recent meetings, but we believe that their in-form attackers will fire them to a comfortable victory this time around.
Read more.
Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 56% . A win for FC Koln had a probability of 22.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.6% .
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (8.29%) . The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (5.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%) . The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
Result RB Leipzig Draw FC Koln 56% ( 0.25) 21.64% ( -0.06) 22.36% ( -0.19)
Both teams to score 59.84% ( -0.07)
61.35% ( 0.03) 38.64% ( -0.02)
39.05% ( 0.03) 60.94% ( -0.03)
86.27% ( 0.09) 13.72% ( -0.08)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 59.02% ( 0.17) 40.98% ( -0.17)
69.36% ( -0.15) 30.64% ( 0.15)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 33.11% ( -0.18) 66.88% ( 0.18)
RB Leipzig 56%
FC Koln 22.36%
Draw 21.64%
RB Leipzig Draw FC Koln 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.49% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.84% 4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.5% Total : 56% 1-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.21% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.64% 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.85% Total : 22.36%
How you voted: RB Leipzig vs FC Koln
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rhs 2.0
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