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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 31.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.02%). The likeliest Burnley win was 2-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Cardiff City |
31.3% ( -1.66) | 24.55% ( -0) | 44.15% ( 1.67) |
Both teams to score 57.88% ( -0.68) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.12% ( -0.59) | 44.88% ( 0.59) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.77% ( -0.56) | 67.23% ( 0.57) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.75% ( -1.32) | 27.25% ( 1.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.32% ( -1.75) | 62.68% ( 1.75) |
Cardiff City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.57% ( 0.51) | 20.43% ( -0.5) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.12% ( 0.8) | 52.88% ( -0.79) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Cardiff City |
2-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.26) 1-0 @ 7.24% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 4.71% ( -0.24) 3-1 @ 3.24% ( -0.24) 3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 2.04% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.99% Total : 31.3% | 1-1 @ 11.49% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.14) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.54% | 1-2 @ 9.13% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.39) 1-3 @ 4.83% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 3.72% ( 0.26) 2-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.92% ( 0.09) 0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.12) 2-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.82% Total : 44.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Burnley | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 41 |
4 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | Watford | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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