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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 48.68%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-2 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Stoke City |
48.68% ( 0) | 23.65% ( 0.01) | 27.67% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 58.66% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.19% ( -0.05) | 42.81% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.79% ( -0.05) | 65.21% ( 0.05) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.25% ( -0.02) | 17.74% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.58% ( -0.03) | 48.42% ( 0.02) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.31% ( -0.04) | 28.68% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.49% ( -0.05) | 64.5% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Stoke City |
2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.48% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.39% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.42% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.37% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.9% 4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0) Other @ 3.74% Total : 48.68% | 1-1 @ 10.98% 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.64% | 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.36% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.97% 1-3 @ 2.86% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.65% ( -0) Other @ 3.51% Total : 27.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 48 | 19 | 29 | 53 |
2 | Burnley | 26 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 52 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 52 |
4 | Sunderland | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 50 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 41 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 40 |
7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 39 |
8 | Bristol City | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
9 | Watford | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 36 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 34 |
13 | Millwall | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 30 |
14 | Preston North EndPreston | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 30 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 29 |
16 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 29 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 28 |
18 | Derby CountyDerby | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 27 |
20 | Luton TownLuton | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 25 |
21 | Portsmouth | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 |
22 | Hull City | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 23 |
23 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 23 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 25 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 53 | -29 | 20 |
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