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Championship | Gameweek 45
Apr 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
The Den
Plymouth Argyle

Millwall
1 - 0
Plymouth

Cooper (83')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Plymouth Argyle, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sunderland 0-1 Millwall
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Stoke 3-0 Plymouth
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Millwall 2-0 Plymouth Argyle

Although it remains to be seen whether Millwall will react positively or negatively to playing with reduced pressure, we cannot ignore their three successive wins. While Plymouth have improved of late, a home victory looks far more likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 51.02%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 24.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Plymouth Argyle win it was 0-1 (7.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Millwall in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Millwall.

Result
MillwallDrawPlymouth Argyle
51.02% (0.188 0.19) 24.85% (-0.07 -0.07) 24.12% (-0.117 -0.12)
Both teams to score 51.4% (0.086000000000006 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.16% (0.178 0.18)50.83% (-0.177 -0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.28% (0.156 0.16)72.72% (-0.155 -0.16)
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.07% (0.148 0.15)19.92% (-0.145 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.94% (0.235 0.23)52.06% (-0.235 -0.23)
Plymouth Argyle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.19% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)35.81% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.41% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)72.58% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Millwall 51.02%
    Plymouth Argyle 24.12%
    Draw 24.84%
MillwallDrawPlymouth Argyle
1-0 @ 11.5% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.54% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
2-0 @ 9.29% (0.019 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.13% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.99% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.63% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.07% (0.023 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.01% (0.022 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.06% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 51.02%
1-1 @ 11.81% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
0-0 @ 7.13% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.9% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-3 @ 0.9% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.84%
0-1 @ 7.33% (-0.053999999999999 -0.05)
1-2 @ 6.07% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.76% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 2.08% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.68% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.29% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 24.12%

How you voted: Millwall vs Plymouth

Millwall
70.4%
Draw
14.8%
Plymouth Argyle
14.8%
54
Head to Head
Oct 3, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Plymouth
0-2
Millwall

Miller (31'), Pleguezuelo (63')
Flemming (59'), Saville (90+7')
McNamara (52'), Cooper (54'), Campbell (54'), Leonard (89'), Wallace (90+4'), Norton-Cuffy (90+7')
Aug 29, 2018 7.45pm
Second Round
Millwall
3-2
Plymouth
Williams (64' pen.), Gregory (84'), O'Brien (89')
Ness (41'), Ladapo (67')
Edwards (63'), Ness (90')
Nov 10, 2015 7.45pm
Area Quarter-Finals
Plymouth
3-5
Millwall
Jervis (34'), Carey (56'), Kervis (85')
Purrington (91')
Gregory (21', 43', 49', 58'), O'Brien (66')
Webster (93')
Apr 15, 2006 3pm
Oct 30, 2005 3pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Browns
32-41
Broncos
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1812422591638
2Burnley1810622361736
3Leeds UnitedLeeds18105331131835
4Sunderland1896326131333
5Middlesbrough1893632211130
6Watford189362624230
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom1861021912728
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn178452117428
9Norwich CityNorwich186753527825
10Millwall176742015525
11Bristol City186752421325
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds187472227-525
13Swansea CitySwansea186571817123
14Stoke CityStoke185671922-321
15Derby CountyDerby185582224-220
16Coventry CityCoventry184682427-318
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd184682028-818
18Preston North EndPreston183961725-818
19Luton TownLuton1853102033-1318
20Cardiff CityCardiff184591728-1117
21Plymouth ArgylePlymouth184591838-2017
22Hull City183691726-915
23Queens Park RangersQPR182971526-1115
24Portsmouth162771830-1213


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