MX23RW : Tuesday, January 21 03:31:04| >> :60:77:77:
Lesotho national football team
COSAFA Cup | Final
Jul 16, 2023 at 5pm UK
King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium
Zambia national football team

Lesotho
0 - 1
Zambia


Lebokollane (26'), Motebang (41')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Moyela Libamba (78')
Kapumbu (29')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's COSAFA Cup clash between Lesotho and Zambia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Malawi 1-1 Lesotho (0-3 pen.)
Friday, July 14 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
All competitions
COSAFA Cup
Last Game: South Africa 1-2 Zambia
Friday, July 14 at 5pm in COSAFA Cup

We said: Lesotho 1-2 Zambia

Given the stakes of Sunday's game, we anticipate a thrilling contest at the King Zwelithini Stadium with both nations having a go at each other for the title. Zambia are more experienced at the stage of the tournament, and while we expect Lesotho to put up a fight, we fancy them coming out with the win in normal time. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 55.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 19.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.96%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for a Lesotho win it was 1-0 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Zambia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Zambia.

Result
LesothoDrawZambia
19.79% (0.352 0.35) 24.59% (-0.184 -0.18) 55.62% (-0.17 -0.17)
Both teams to score 46.68% (1.027 1.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.72% (1.081 1.08)54.27% (-1.084 -1.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.33% (0.896 0.9)75.67% (-0.898 -0.9)
Lesotho Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.94% (1.025 1.03)42.06% (-1.026 -1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.51% (0.873 0.87)78.48% (-0.876 -0.88)
Zambia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.56% (0.351 0.35)19.44% (-0.354 -0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.72% (0.574 0.57)51.27% (-0.577 -0.58)
Score Analysis
    Lesotho 19.79%
    Zambia 55.61%
    Draw 24.59%
LesothoDrawZambia
1-0 @ 7.08% (-0.099 -0.1)
2-1 @ 5.02% (0.125 0.13)
2-0 @ 3.07% (0.043 0.04)
3-1 @ 1.45% (0.076 0.08)
3-2 @ 1.19% (0.075 0.08)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 19.79%
1-1 @ 11.59% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 8.17% (-0.352 -0.35)
2-2 @ 4.11% (0.147 0.15)
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 24.59%
0-1 @ 13.39% (-0.42 -0.42)
0-2 @ 10.96% (-0.22 -0.22)
1-2 @ 9.5% (0.078000000000001 0.08)
0-3 @ 5.99% (-0.053999999999999 -0.05)
1-3 @ 5.19% (0.1 0.1)
0-4 @ 2.45% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 2.25% (0.104 0.1)
1-4 @ 2.12% (0.064 0.06)
2-4 @ 0.92% (0.053 0.05)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 55.61%

How you voted: Winner SF1 vs Winner SF2

Winner Semi-final 1
16.7%
Draw
0.0%
Winner Semi-final 2
83.3%
6
Head to Head
Mar 26, 2023 2pm
Group Stage
Lesotho
0-2
Zambia
Daka (14', 69')
Mar 23, 2023 4pm
Group Stage
Zambia
3-1
Lesotho
Sakala (37'), Banda (53', 57')
Bereng (33')
Jul 8, 2021 11am
Group Stage
Zambia
1-2
Lesotho
Shonga (29')
Chongo (13'), Sakala (63')
Motebang (70', 88')
Fothoane (20'), Makepe (37')
rhs 2.0
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