Guimaraes3 - 1Celje
Form, Standings, Stats
Saturday, September 28 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, September 28 at 4.30pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga
for
We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-0 Celje
Despite their aggregate defeat when these two teams met last year, Vitoria de Guimaraes should have too much quality for Celje, particularly with home advantage in Portugal, and we see them opening their account with all three points on Wednesday. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.95%. A win for Celje had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.27%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Celje win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Celje |
45.95% ( 0.23) | 24.53% ( -0.06) | 29.51% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 56.97% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
