We said: Dinamo Minsk 2-0 Lincoln Red Imps
Although Minsk did concede numerous shots when they were eliminated from the Champions League qualifiers, they should still come into Thursday's clash as favourites given they were at least competitive against Ludogorets.
On the other hand, Lincoln rarely do well in European competitions, and it would be a surprise to see them avoid defeat.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Minsk win with a probability of 50.43%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 24.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Minsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Lincoln Red Imps win it was 0-1 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Dinamo Minsk in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Dinamo Minsk.