FA Cup | First Round Replays
Nov 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium (Derby)
Derby1 - 3Crewe
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Derby 3-0 Barnsley
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Crewe 1-0 Notts County
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League Two
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League Two
We said: Derby County 2-0 Crewe Alexandra
From staring down the barrel of defeat to a straightforward path into the second round of the FA Cup, Derby County ought to use home advantage and their recent goalscoring exploits to their advantage on Tuesday. Crewe's League Two record offers the Railwaymen some hope of a successful evening, but Bell's side will surely be made to pay for their late collapse in the opening fixture as Derby set up a second-round battle with Bristol Rovers. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 66.5%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 14.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (4.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
66.5% ( 0) | 19.22% ( 0.01) | 14.28% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 52.29% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59% ( -0.06) | 40.99% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.61% ( -0.06) | 63.38% ( 0.06) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.55% ( -0.02) | 11.45% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 63.73% ( -0.04) | 36.27% ( 0.03) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.05% ( -0.06) | 40.95% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.49% ( -0.05) | 77.51% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
Derby County 66.49%
Crewe Alexandra 14.28%
Draw 19.22%
| Derby County | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
| 2-0 @ 11.01% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 10.16% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.83% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.1% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.31% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.85% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.87% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.67% ( -0)Other @ 3.86% Total : 66.49% | 1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.69% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 19.22% | 0-1 @ 4.19% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.05% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.87% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.21% ( -0)Other @ 1.66% Total : 14.28% |
How you voted: Derby vs Crewe
Derby County
83.3%Draw
8.3%Crewe Alexandra
8.3%48
Head to Head
Nov 5, 2023 2.45pm
First Round
Crewe
2-2
Derby
Baker-Richardson (41'), Nevitt (54')
Mendez-Laing (89'), Hourihane (90+3')
Jan 14, 2006 3pm
Sep 11, 2005 3pm
Apr 5, 2005 3pm
