Looking to strengthen their position in the top four of the Turkish Super Lig table, Istanbul Basaksehir will welcome Hatayspor to the Basaksehir Faith Terim Stadium on Sunday.
Despite a disappointing draw last time out, the hosts' lead over fifth place was stretched to two points with five games to play, while their visitors are winless in four matches.
Match preview
In what has been an intriguing Turkish Super Lig season, with the three dominant sides faltering, Istanbul Basaksehir have taken advantage and established themselves as frontrunners in the race for European qualification.
After only trailing runaway leaders Trabzonspor for large parts of the season, the capital side did experience a dip in February and March, losing three games and playing out a draw in a four-match span, but they quickly bounced back to remain in pole position for a top-four finish.
Emre Belozoglu's side firstly beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0, before making it back-to-back wins with a 2-0 triumph away at Sivasspor earlier in April.
While they were forced to settle for a disappointing draw away at strugglers Altay last time out, with Trezeguet's opener cancelled out in the dying minutes, their position in the top four was actually strengthened, as the two teams in pursuit of their place both lost.
That means Istanbul Basaksehir have a two-point cushion in the top four with five games to play, and they will aim to increase that gap with a return to winning ways at the weekend.
They welcome a side hoping to arrest a slump, with the visitors having recently dropped out of contention in the fight at the top end of the division.
Hatayspor have been relatively impressive for the majority of the top-flight season, amassing 46 points and 14 wins from their opening 29 league games, but a run of four matches without a victory has quickly seen them fall down to ninth place.
Following commendable draws with Besiktas and Adana Demirspor, the Guneyin Yildizi were thrashed 4-1 by Antalyaspor, with Mame Biram Diouf's finish overpowered by a Haji Wright brace and goals from Naldo and Luiz Adriano.
They were, at least, able to add another point to their tally last time out, with Yassine Benzia equalising on the hour mark to earn a 1-1 draw at home to Sivasspor, but Omer Erdogan's men will certainly be disappointed with their recent form and will aim to bounce back to winning ways on Sunday with a top-six finish still more than plausible.
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- D
- D
- L
- D
Team News
Istanbul Basaksehir winger Nacer Chadli is expected to continue a spell on the sidelines alongside Youssouf Ndayishimiye, while midfielder Berkay Ozcan is a major doubt.
Stefano Okaka will again lead the line, having hit 10 Super Lig goals this term, while Belozoglu has plenty of options to choose form in the supporting areas.
Egyptian winger Trezeguet has enjoyed an eye-catching run of form since joining on loan from Aston Villa in February, and he is bound to earn another start having scored five goals and provided two assists in just eight appearances.
Hatayspor will remain without Adama Noss Traore and Burak Oksuz due to injuries, while Ruben Ribeiro will serve a suspension at the weekend.
Attacking midfielder Yassine Benzia found the net while deputising for Traore last time out, and he should keep his place if deemed fit.
Mame Biram Diouf will continue to lead the attack and captain the side, with the former Manchester United prospect having hit 11 league goals this season.
Istanbul Basaksehir possible starting lineup:
Babacan; Caicara, Epureanu, Duarte, Kaldirim; Cigerci; Turuc, Aleksic, Tekdemir, Trezeguet; Okaka
Hatayspor possible starting lineup:
Mohamedi; Bas; Kurucuk, Sackey, Adekugbe; Ergun Boudjemaa; Lobzhanidze, Benzia, Kaabi; Diouf
We say: Istanbul Basaksehir 2-1 Hatayspor
Istanbul Basaksehir will be vying for an instant return to winning ways after a disappointing draw last time out, and, in what we see as being a close and hard-fought encounter, they should have enough to scrape over the line.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 71.08%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Hatayspor had a probability of 11.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Hatayspor win it was 0-1 (3.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Istanbul Basaksehir would win this match.
