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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 44.86%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
Result | ||
MK Dons | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
44.86% ( -0.55) | 24.18% ( -0.02) | 30.96% ( 0.58) |
Both teams to score 58.98% ( 0.4) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.65% ( 0.39) | 43.35% ( -0.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.25% ( 0.38) | 65.75% ( -0.38) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.5% ( -0.08) | 19.5% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.62% ( -0.13) | 51.38% ( 0.13) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.27% ( 0.57) | 26.73% ( -0.57) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.01% ( 0.74) | 61.99% ( -0.74) |
Score Analysis |
MK Dons | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 44.86% | 1-1 @ 11.24% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.21% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
2 | Port Vale | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 36 |
3 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 34 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 33 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 33 |
6 | Chesterfield | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 31 |
8 | MK Dons | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
9 | Gillingham | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 29 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 28 |
11 | Notts County | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 28 |
12 | Salford City | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 27 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 26 |
14 | Bromley | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 23 |
16 | BarrowBarrow | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 22 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 19 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 16 |
23 | Morecambe | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 14 |
> League Two Full Table |