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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 39.28%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (6.32%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cheltenham Town in this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
35.47% ( 0.08) | 25.25% ( 0.02) | 39.28% ( -0.1) |
Both teams to score 56.74% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.08% ( -0.09) | 46.92% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.83% ( -0.08) | 69.17% ( 0.08) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.29% ( 0) | 25.71% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.37% ( 0.01) | 60.63% ( -0.01) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.37% ( -0.09) | 23.63% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.28% ( -0.13) | 57.72% ( 0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
1-0 @ 8.25% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.61% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.66% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 3.44% Total : 35.47% | 1-1 @ 11.9% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.25% | 0-1 @ 8.76% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.59% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.04% Total : 39.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |