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FC Dallas
Major League Soccer
Jun 20, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Toyota Stadium
Minnesota United

Dallas
5 - 3
Minnesota Utd

Musa (17', 38', 62'), Ferreira (75'), Farrington (90')
Illarramendi (52'), Farrington (90+8')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Hlongwane (33'), Dotson (57'), Trapp (90+7' pen.)
Boxall (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between Dallas and Minnesota United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Dallas 2-0 St Louis City
Sunday, June 16 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Seattle 2-0 Minnesota Utd
Sunday, June 16 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Dallas 2-1 Minnesota United

Both teams have struggled at the back this term, and we expect neither to come away with a clean sheet here. That said, we are also tipping Dallas to just about get the job done come the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 51.34%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 25.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dallas would win this match.

Result
DallasDrawMinnesota United
51.34% (-0.297 -0.3) 23.54% (0.010000000000002 0.01) 25.12% (0.281 0.28)
Both teams to score 56.64% (0.251 0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.59% (0.19600000000001 0.2)44.41% (-0.202 -0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.21% (0.189 0.19)66.78% (-0.19399999999999 -0.19)
Dallas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.66% (-0.040000000000006 -0.04)17.34% (0.035 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.28% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)47.72% (0.060000000000002 0.06)
Minnesota United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.52% (0.33499999999999 0.33)31.48% (-0.339 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.14% (0.384 0.38)67.86% (-0.39 -0.39)
Score Analysis
    Dallas 51.34%
    Minnesota United 25.12%
    Draw 23.54%
DallasDrawMinnesota United
2-1 @ 9.69% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-0 @ 9.56% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09)
2-0 @ 8.38% (-0.093 -0.09)
3-1 @ 5.66% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.89% (-0.059 -0.06)
3-2 @ 3.27% (0.021 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.48% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.14% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.43% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 3.84%
Total : 51.34%
1-1 @ 11.05% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.6% (0.042000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 5.46% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.26% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 23.54%
1-2 @ 6.39% (0.056 0.06)
0-1 @ 6.31% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-2 @ 3.65% (0.036 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.46% (0.044 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.16% (0.036 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.41% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 25.12%

How you voted: Dallas vs Minnesota Utd

Dallas
40.9%
Draw
36.4%
Minnesota United
22.7%
22
Head to Head
Jun 9, 2024 1.30am
Oct 18, 2022 2.30am
First Round
Dallas
1-1
Minnesota Utd
(Aggregate 1-1 | Dallas win 5-4 on penalties)
Quignon (64')
Reynoso (53')
Sep 3, 2022 8.30pm
Minnesota Utd
0-3
Dallas

Fragapane (20'), Arriaga (80')
Fragapane (69')
Boxall (55' og.), Velasco (56'), Ferreira (58')
Arriola (4'), Farfan (15')
rhs 2.0
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