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Championship | Gameweek 2
Aug 17, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Middlesbrough logo

Derby
1 - 0
Middlesbrough

Jackson (14')
Mendez-Laing (40'), Elder (67'), Jackson (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Latte Lath (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 2-1 Chesterfield
Tuesday, August 13 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup

We said: Derby County 1-3 Middlesbrough

Derby were defensively naive during their opening match against Blackburn last Friday, and such a display once again will lead to the same result. Middlesbrough have arguably been the standout performer in the EFL so far this season, and Carrick's troops should have enough firepower to record maximum points in the Midlands on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawMiddlesbrough
43.05% (-2.211 -2.21) 25.32% (-0.181 -0.18) 31.63% (2.392 2.39)
Both teams to score 55.42% (1.829 1.83)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.84% (1.824 1.82)48.16% (-1.824 -1.82)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.69% (1.65 1.65)70.31% (-1.649 -1.65)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.68% (-0.253 -0.25)22.32% (0.254 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.21% (-0.383 -0.38)55.79% (0.383 0.38)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.34% (2.577 2.58)28.66% (-2.578 -2.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.52% (3.109 3.11)64.48% (-3.108 -3.11)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 43.05%
    Middlesbrough 31.63%
    Draw 25.31%
Derby CountyDrawMiddlesbrough
1-0 @ 9.59% (-0.817 -0.82)
2-1 @ 8.99% (-0.168 -0.17)
2-0 @ 7.19% (-0.677 -0.68)
3-1 @ 4.5% (-0.119 -0.12)
3-0 @ 3.6% (-0.368 -0.37)
3-2 @ 2.81% (0.124 0.12)
4-1 @ 1.69% (-0.057 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.35% (-0.149 -0.15)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.039 0.04)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 43.05%
1-1 @ 11.98% (-0.13 -0.13)
0-0 @ 6.4% (-0.496 -0.5)
2-2 @ 5.62% (0.29 0.29)
3-3 @ 1.17% (0.129 0.13)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.31%
0-1 @ 7.99% (-0.026000000000001 -0.03)
1-2 @ 7.49% (0.44 0.44)
0-2 @ 4.99% (0.329 0.33)
1-3 @ 3.12% (0.386 0.39)
2-3 @ 2.34% (0.274 0.27)
0-3 @ 2.08% (0.271 0.27)
1-4 @ 0.98% (0.18 0.18)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 31.63%

How you voted: Derby vs Middlesbrough

Derby County
10.0%
Draw
14.0%
Middlesbrough
76.0%
50
Head to Head
Feb 12, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 32
Middlesbrough
4-1
Derby
Buchanan (15' og.), Connolly (44'), Crooks (45+3'), Watmore (89')
Tavernier (27'), Crooks (31'), Howson (50')
Bird (39')
Lawrence (27'), Ebiowei (87'), (88')
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 4
Derby
0-0
Middlesbrough
Jagielka (66'), Byrne (90+1')
Peltier (30'), Tavernier (43'), Bola (54'), Jones (85')
Feb 13, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 29
Derby
2-1
Middlesbrough
Gregory (15'), Kazim-Richards (32')
Jozwiak (35'), Knight (90+4')
Kebano (38')
Dijksteel (62')
Nov 25, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 13
Middlesbrough
3-0
Derby
Assombalonga (33'), Clarke (71' og.), Johnson (83')

Jozwiak (9'), Lawrence (49'), Byrne (53'), Buchanan (65')
Jan 11, 2020 3pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds1695228121632
2Sunderland1695226121432
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
4Burnley168621961330
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea165471414019
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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