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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Middlesbrough |
43.05% ( -2.21) | 25.32% ( -0.18) | 31.63% ( 2.39) |
Both teams to score 55.42% ( 1.83) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.84% ( 1.82) | 48.16% ( -1.82) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.69% ( 1.65) | 70.31% ( -1.65) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.68% ( -0.25) | 22.32% ( 0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.21% ( -0.38) | 55.79% ( 0.38) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.34% ( 2.58) | 28.66% ( -2.58) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.52% ( 3.11) | 64.48% ( -3.11) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Middlesbrough |
1-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.82) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.68) 3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.6% ( -0.37) 3-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.28% Total : 43.05% | 1-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.5) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.29) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.44) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.39) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.27) 0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.27) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.64% Total : 31.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 12 | 16 | 32 |
2 | Sunderland | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 32 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
4 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
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