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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Stoke City |
45.99% ( 0.59) | 25.09% ( -0.16) | 28.91% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 54.7% ( 0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.57% ( 0.44) | 48.43% ( -0.44) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.43% ( 0.4) | 70.56% ( -0.4) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.91% ( 0.44) | 21.08% ( -0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.1% ( 0.69) | 53.9% ( -0.69) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.32% ( -0.09) | 30.68% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.07% ( -0.1) | 66.93% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Stoke City |
1-0 @ 10.06% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.81% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.56% Total : 45.99% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.09% | 0-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.03% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.02% Total : 28.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 19 | 35 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 35 |
3 | Burnley | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
4 | Sunderland | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 33 |
5 | Watford | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 29 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 27 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 27 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 25 |
9 | Millwall | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
10 | Norwich CityNorwich | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 22 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 22 |
12 | Bristol City | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 22 |
13 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 22 |
14 | Stoke CityStoke | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 21 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 20 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 17 |
19 | Preston North EndPreston | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 17 |
20 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 17 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 15 |
23 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 14 |
24 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
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