Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 76.33%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 8.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.41%) and 1-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.15%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (2.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 4-0 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Estoril Praia |
76.33% ( -0.51) | 15.07% ( 0.23) | 8.6% ( 0.29) |
Both teams to score 47.21% ( 0.5) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.65% ( -0.07) | 37.35% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.43% ( -0.07) | 59.57% ( 0.07) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.87% ( -0.13) | 8.13% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.46% ( -0.32) | 28.53% ( 0.32) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.39% ( 0.62) | 48.61% ( -0.62) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.32% ( 0.44) | 83.68% ( -0.45) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Estoril Praia |
2-0 @ 12.44% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 10.41% ( -0.16) 1-0 @ 9.92% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.05) 6-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.41% Total : 76.32% | 1-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 3.95% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.73% Total : 15.07% | 0-1 @ 2.85% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.14% Total : 8.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |