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Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 3, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Rafael Mendoza Castellon
Gremio

The Strongest
2 - 0
Gremio

Ursino (16'), Triverio (73')
Rojas Cespedes (17'), Lavallen (18'), Ursino (23')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between The Strongest and Gremio.

Form, Standings, Stats

The Strongest

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Last Game: River Plate 2-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, June 28 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Gremio

All competitions
Last Game: Fluminense 2-3 Gremio
Thursday, December 7 at 12.30am in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The Strongest win with a probability of 42.62%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 32.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a The Strongest win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The Strongest would win this match.

Result
The StrongestDrawGremio
42.62% (-2.647 -2.65) 24.74% (0.36 0.36) 32.64% (2.292 2.29)
Both teams to score 57.79% (-0.175 -0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.75% (-0.697 -0.7)45.25% (0.69900000000001 0.7)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.41% (-0.67 -0.67)67.59% (0.67399999999999 0.67)
The Strongest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.72% (-1.467 -1.47)21.28% (1.468 1.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.8% (-2.322 -2.32)54.21% (2.323 2.32)
Gremio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.41% (1.127 1.13)26.59% (-1.124 -1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.19% (1.467 1.47)61.82% (-1.465 -1.47)
Score Analysis
    The Strongest 42.62%
    Gremio 32.64%
    Draw 24.73%
The StrongestDrawGremio
2-1 @ 8.97% (-0.259 -0.26)
1-0 @ 8.76% (-0.133 -0.13)
2-0 @ 6.78% (-0.421 -0.42)
3-1 @ 4.63% (-0.354 -0.35)
3-0 @ 3.5% (-0.388 -0.39)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.131 -0.13)
4-1 @ 1.79% (-0.226 -0.23)
4-0 @ 1.35% (-0.22 -0.22)
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.108 -0.11)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 42.62%
1-1 @ 11.59% (0.19 0.19)
2-2 @ 5.94% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
0-0 @ 5.66% (0.167 0.17)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.73%
1-2 @ 7.68% (0.363 0.36)
0-1 @ 7.5% (0.449 0.45)
0-2 @ 4.96% (0.444 0.44)
1-3 @ 3.39% (0.261 0.26)
2-3 @ 2.62% (0.09 0.09)
0-3 @ 2.19% (0.259 0.26)
1-4 @ 1.12% (0.119 0.12)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 32.64%

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