Ligue 1 | Gameweek 14
Dec 3, 2023 at 4.05pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille2 - 0Metz
We said: Lille 2-1 Metz
A closely-fought contest between two in-form teams could be on the cards on Sunday, but considering that Lille are set to recall a few first-team regulars who were rested in midweek, we expect Fonceca's men to have few issues coming away with all three points on home soil. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 60.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Metz |
60.92% ( -0.66) | 21.16% ( 0.07) | 17.92% ( 0.58) |
| Both teams to score 54.04% ( 0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.18% ( 0.64) | 42.82% ( -0.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.78% ( 0.63) | 65.22% ( -0.63) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.41% ( 0.01) | 13.59% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 59.29% ( 0.01) | 40.7% ( -0.02) |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.53% ( 1.05) | 37.46% ( -1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.75% ( 1.02) | 74.24% ( -1.02) |
| Score Analysis |
Lille 60.92%
Metz 17.92%
Draw 21.16%
| Lille | Draw | Metz |
| 1-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.28) 2-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.28)2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.75% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 3.31% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 3.08% Total : 60.92% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.16% | 0-1 @ 5% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.37% Total : 17.92% |
How you voted: Lille vs Metz
Lille
84.0%Draw
16.0%Metz
0.0%25
Head to Head
Feb 18, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 25
Lille
0-0
Metz
Apr 11, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 32
Metz
P-P
Lille
