Home wins are a rarity when La Paillade and Les Grenats lock horns, as Montpellier have suffered three defeats and two draws from their last five clashes with Metz at the Stade de la Mosson, going without victory in this exact fixture since 2014.
The visitors' efforts against Marseille were commendable, but they must be taken with a pinch of salt owing to Marseille's numerical disadvantage, and Montpellier boast a couple of difference makers in Adams and Teji Savanier capable of conjuring up a magic moment.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 45.3%. A win for Metz had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
0.7) 
-0.05) 
