Ligue 1 | Gameweek 19
Jan 27, 2024 at 4pm UK
Allianz Riviera
Nice1 - 0Metz
We said: Nice 1-0 Metz
Not having their top goalscorer in Moffi available will be difficult for Nice, but Les Aiglons have proven countless times over this campaign that they can hold down the fort and grind out a victory. As for Metz, they seem low on confidence and struggling to find solutions in the attack, and we believe they will have a difficult time breaking down a defensive unit as stable as Nice. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 60.97%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Metz had a probability of 16.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.07%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nice in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nice | Draw | Metz |
60.97% ( 0.57) | 22.77% ( -0.04) | 16.26% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 45.68% ( -0.96) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.73% ( -0.7) | 52.27% ( 0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.03% ( -0.61) | 73.97% ( 0.61) |
| Nice Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.26% ( -0.05) | 16.74% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 53.35% ( -0.09) | 46.65% ( 0.09) |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.86% ( -1.12) | 45.14% ( 1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 18.96% ( -0.9) | 81.04% ( 0.9) |
| Score Analysis |
Nice 60.97%
Metz 16.26%
Draw 22.77%
| Nice | Draw | Metz |
| 1-0 @ 13.5% ( 0.35) 2-0 @ 12.07% ( 0.3)2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.75% Total : 60.97% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.66% Total : 22.77% | 0-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.44% Total : 16.26% |
How you voted: Nice vs Metz
Nice
80.0%Draw
15.0%Metz
5.0%40
