We said: Atlanta United 2-1 Orlando City
While there is little to choose between these sides based on their league position this season, Atlanta's home form of late cannot be overlooked. They are unbeaten in their last five, while Orlando have failed to win any of their last three matches on the road and have failed to score in their last two. We do not expect a clean sheet from the hosts, but we do fancy that they will get the win.
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Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 60.46%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Orlando City had a probability of 18.22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.09%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Orlando City win it was 0-1 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.