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Toronto FC
Major League Soccer
Sep 1, 2024 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
DC United

Toronto
1 - 3
DC United

Kerr (83')
Flores (65'), Kerr (77'), Laryea (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Rodriguez (67'), Badji (88'), Pirani (90+3')
Pirani (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and DC United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Houston 0-1 Toronto
Sunday, August 25 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: DC United 3-4 Dallas
Sunday, August 25 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Toronto 1-2 DC United

We are not convinced that Toronto will be able to create many scoring opportunities on Saturday, given the key pieces out through suspension and the lack of depth when you go down their roster. As leaky as DC have been on the back end, Benteke and company should find a way through what has been an inconsistent Toronto backline in 2024. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 51.17%. A win for DC United had a probability of 25.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.

Result
TorontoDrawDC United
51.17% (0.188 0.19) 22.88% (-0.112 -0.11) 25.95% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)
Both teams to score 59.79% (0.309 0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.37% (0.443 0.44)40.63% (-0.44900000000001 -0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.99% (0.453 0.45)63.01% (-0.458 -0.46)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.99% (0.22500000000001 0.23)16.01% (-0.231 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.66% (0.416 0.42)45.34% (-0.421 -0.42)
DC United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.18% (0.173 0.17)28.81% (-0.179 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.33% (0.217 0.22)64.66% (-0.22199999999999 -0.22)
Score Analysis
    Toronto 51.17%
    DC United 25.95%
    Draw 22.87%
TorontoDrawDC United
2-1 @ 9.63% (0.0019999999999989 0)
1-0 @ 8.45% (-0.108 -0.11)
2-0 @ 7.74% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-1 @ 5.88% (0.047 0.05)
3-0 @ 4.73% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.66% (0.047 0.05)
4-1 @ 2.69% (0.042 0.04)
4-0 @ 2.17% (0.023 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.68% (0.034 0.03)
5-1 @ 0.99% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 51.17%
1-1 @ 10.51% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-2 @ 5.99% (0.03 0.03)
0-0 @ 4.61% (-0.095 -0.09)
3-3 @ 1.52% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 22.87%
1-2 @ 6.54% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-1 @ 5.74% (-0.09 -0.09)
0-2 @ 3.57% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.71% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.49% (0.025 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.48% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 3.42%
Total : 25.95%

How you voted: Toronto vs DC United

Toronto
41.7%
Draw
16.7%
DC United
41.7%
12
Head to Head
Jun 2, 2024 12.30am
DC United
2-2
Toronto
Ku-Dipietro (79'), Klich (90+5' pen.)
Etienne (2'), Bernardeschi (33')
Bernardeschi (52'), Gomis (80'), Flores (82'), Marshall-Rutty (90+4'), Osorio (90+4'), Longstaff (90+8'), Petretta (90+12')
Bernardeschi (87'), Gomis (90+4')
May 28, 2023 12.30am
Toronto
2-1
DC United
Kerr (14'), Thompson (72')
Kaye (45+2'), Marshall-Rutty (90+5')
Benteke (87')
Santos (69')
Feb 26, 2023 12.30am
DC United
3-2
Toronto
Klich (13'), Benteke (90'), Ku-Dipietro (90+8')
Bernardeschi (66' pen.), Kaye (83')
May 21, 2022 11.30pm
DC United
2-2
Toronto
Flores (8'), Estrada (56')
Hines-Ike (16'), Alfaro (23'), Smith (84'), Durkin (90+2')
Akinola (36'), Osorio (89')
Salcedo (10'), Jimenez (45+1'), Osorio (80'), Achara (85')
Mar 19, 2022 7pm
Toronto
2-1
DC United
Pozuelo (24'), Osorio (53')
Pozuelo (47'), Osorio (55'), O'Neill (77'), MacNaughton (82')
Canouse (10')
Flores (49'), Najar (72'), Yow (83')
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