Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.