Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 54.83%. A win for West Ham United had a probability of 22.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest West Ham United win was 1-2 (5.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | West Ham United |
54.83% ( 0.55) | 22.26% ( 0.22) | 22.91% ( -0.78) |
Both teams to score 58.43% ( -1.8) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.16% ( -1.93) | 40.84% ( 1.93) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.77% ( -2) | 63.23% ( 2) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.16% ( -0.48) | 14.84% ( 0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.84% ( -0.93) | 43.15% ( 0.93) |
West Ham United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.62% ( -1.72) | 31.38% ( 1.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.25% ( -2.04) | 67.75% ( 2.04) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | West Ham United |
2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.62) 2-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.45) 3-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 2.98% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 3% Total : 54.83% | 1-1 @ 10.29% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.4) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.25% | 1-2 @ 5.97% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 5.4% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.2) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.71% Total : 22.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 36 |
2 | Chelsea | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 34 |
3 | Arsenal | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 30 |
4 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 28 |
5 | Manchester CityMan City | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 27 |
6 | Bournemouth | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
7 | Aston Villa | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 25 |
8 | Fulham | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 24 |
9 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 24 |
10 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 23 |
11 | Brentford | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 23 |
12 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 23 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 19 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 16 |
16 | Everton | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 15 |
17 | Leicester CityLeicester | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 14 |
18 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
19 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 9 |
20 | Southampton | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 36 | -25 | 5 |
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