Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
39.33% ( -0.3) | 27.61% ( 0.33) | 33.06% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 48.65% ( -0.98) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.95% ( -1.23) | 57.04% ( 1.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.07% ( -0.99) | 77.93% ( 0.99) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.73% ( -0.75) | 28.27% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.01% ( -0.96) | 63.99% ( 0.96) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.82% ( -0.64) | 32.18% ( 0.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.34% ( -0.74) | 68.66% ( 0.74) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.33% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.61% | 0-1 @ 10.31% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.74% Total : 33.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 47 |
2 | Benfica | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 14 | 29 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 15 | 27 | 41 |
4 | Braga | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 32 |
6 | Casa Pia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 26 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 24 |
9 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 23 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 23 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 22 |
12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 21 |
13 | Nacional | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 19 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | -19 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |