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Arouca
Benfica
Boavista
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Farense logo
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Arouca
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 1
Aug 13, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca
Estoril

Arouca
4 - 3
Estoril

Mujica (20'), Cristo (57'), Feltes (73' og.), Santos (90+6')
Esgaio (4'), Sylla (10'), Kouassi (21'), Santos (90+7')
Kouassi (37')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Holsgrove (10'), Marques (49'), Marques (70')
Holsgrove (41'), Gomes (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 2-1 Brann
Thursday, August 10 at 7pm in Europa Conference League

Estoril Praia

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estoril 5-1 CF Os Belenenses
Saturday, July 29 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga

We said: Arouca 2-1 Estoril Praia

 Arouca's solid preseason form, capped off with their midweek win against Brann, sees them come into this match as the fancied side to claim the points. They have scored two or more goals in five of their last six home games in all competitions, and we expect they will get at least another couple in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
AroucaDrawEstoril Praia
45.18% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07) 27.27% (0.124 0.12) 27.55% (-0.055 -0.05)
Both teams to score 47.24% (-0.381 -0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.31% (-0.472 -0.47)57.69% (0.472 0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.55% (-0.374 -0.37)78.45% (0.374 0.37)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.54% (-0.244 -0.24)25.46% (0.245 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.71% (-0.337 -0.34)60.29% (0.337 0.34)
Estoril Praia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.37% (-0.302 -0.3)36.63% (0.30099999999999 0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.58% (-0.305 -0.31)73.42% (0.30500000000001 0.31)
Score Analysis
    Arouca 45.17%
    Estoril Praia 27.55%
    Draw 27.27%
AroucaDrawEstoril Praia
1-0 @ 12.75% (0.13 0.13)
2-1 @ 8.77% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-0 @ 8.73% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
3-1 @ 4% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.98% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.37% (-0.026 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.36% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 45.17%
1-1 @ 12.81% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 9.33% (0.166 0.17)
2-2 @ 4.4% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 27.27%
0-1 @ 9.37% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
1-2 @ 6.43% (-0.035 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.7% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.15% (-0.03 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.57% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.47% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.84%
Total : 27.55%

Head to Head
May 15, 2023 8.15pm
Gameweek 32
Estoril
2-0
Arouca
Carvalho (68'), Cassiano (90+4')
> Preview
Jan 7, 2023 3.30pm
Gameweek 15
Arouca
2-0
Estoril
Dabbagh (28', 64')
> Preview
Jan 27, 2022 8.15pm
Gameweek 18
Estoril
1-2
Arouca
Ba (6' og.)
Joaozinho (26'), Franco (67'), Geraldes (90+6')
Silva (89'), Kouassi (90+7')
Ba (54'), Moreira (75')
> Preview
Aug 7, 2021 12.45pm
Gameweek 1
Arouca
0-2
Estoril

Andres Caballero (88')
Filipe Russo Franco (4'), Meshino (90+6')
Gamboa (38'), Alexis Leite Figueira (57'), Geraldes (89')
> Preview
May 21, 2017 6pm
Estoril
4-2
Arouca
Claro (6'), Carlinhos (19'), Gomes (30'), Tocantins (76')
Dankler (39'), Yarchuk (79'), Basso (91')
Goiano (1', 31')
Costa (5'), Mateus (51'), Gonzalez (82'), Adilson (84')
Basto (41')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon14120243103336
2Porto1411123392434
3Benfica1310213282432
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara149051613327
5Braga147432516925
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes146441814422
7MoreirenseMoreirense146261919020
8FamalicaoFamalicao144731715219
9Casa Pia144551317-417
10Gil Vicente144461724-716
11Rio AveRio Ave144461525-1016
12Estoril PraiaEstoril143561221-914
13Nacional13337817-912
14AVS142661122-1112
15Estrela Amadora143381224-1212
16BoavistaBoavista142571019-911
17AroucaArouca14329823-1511
18SC FarenseFarense14239720-139
> Primeira Liga Full Table


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