Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 35.3%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 34.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (12.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
Maritimo | Draw | Arouca |
35.3% ( -0.95) | 29.84% ( -0.1) | 34.86% ( 1.05) |
Both teams to score 42.57% ( 0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
35.41% ( 0.35) | 64.58% ( -0.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
16.4% ( 0.24) | 83.6% ( -0.24) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.4% ( -0.45) | 34.6% ( 0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.68% ( -0.48) | 71.32% ( 0.48) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.1% ( 0.91) | 34.9% ( -0.91) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.36% ( 0.95) | 71.64% ( -0.95) |
Score Analysis |
Maritimo | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 12.81% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 7.16% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 6.8% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.25% Total : 35.3% | 1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.07% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 3.77% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.83% | 0-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 2.49% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.2% Total : 34.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 6 | 33 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 30 |
3 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 28 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 |
5 | Braga | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
10 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 13 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 10 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 10 |
14 | AVS | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
15 | Nacional | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 8 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 8 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |