RB Leipzig take on Borussia Dortmund on Saturday in a mouth-watering Bundesliga clash.
The hosts may have the chance to move top of the table if Borussia Monchengladbach beat league leaders Bayern Munich on Friday night, while Dortmund can reduce the gap to their forthcoming opponents to three points with a victory.
Match preview
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Perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the Bundesliga season so far has been how impenetrable Leipzig's defence has been in most of their domestic matches, with Julian Nagelsmann comfortably conceding the fewest goals in the league.
Indeed, no other side is conceding on average less than one goal per game as Leipzig currently are (nine in 14 matches), with Saturday's 1-0 win at Stuttgart their fourth clean sheet in a row in the league.
Perhaps the 3-3 draw with title rivals Bayern last month was the straw which broke the camel's back for Nagelsmann, with no German outfit managing to score past them since. There appears to have been a clear shift in terms of emphasis on protecting the defence, with less attacking potency offset by greater collective defensive strength.
One example of this is Angelino being used as an attacking left-back less frequently, with Nagelsmann utilising his attacking strengths from a higher starting point on the pitch. The Manchester City loanee, who is astonishingly the club's top goalscorer this season, almost extended his tally in the opening minutes at Stuttgart, but was denied by a fine save by Gregor Kobel.
Kobel was undoubtedly man of the match, with the stopper tipping Emil Forsberg's penalty onto the bar after the Sweden midfielder had been tripped in the penalty area, before making a string of decent saves either side of the half-time interval to keep Stuttgart in the game.
However, Dani Olmo showed his teammates how it was done by converting at the back post to seal a crucial victory after Angelino's cross was deflected into his compatriot's path, but Leipzig may need to be more clinical in order to extend their winning run with Dortmund surely likely to finally break their defensive resolve.
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Indeed, Dortmund appear to be buoyed by the removal of Lucien Favre as manager, with his former assistant Edin Terzic lifting a side which was desperately short of morale.
BVB put the disappointing defeat to Union Berlin prior to the winter break behind them with an excellent 2-0 win against in-form Wolfsburg on Sunday, with England international Jadon Sancho finally scoring his first league goal of the season.
In truth, the Wolves had started the game more brightly, with Xaver Schlager and Yannick Gerhardt going close to giving their side the lead. However, Dortmund gained a foothold in the game thereafter, with Marco Reus in excellent form in a free role behind Erling Braut Haaland; only a combination of Sancho's profligacy and Koen Casteels's superb reflexes prevented Terzic's side from taking a first-half lead.
Manuel Akanji finally broke the deadlock after the hour mark, though, with a powerful header from a corner, before Sancho broke away in injury time with Wolfsburg pushing for an equaliser. The England winger displayed the combination of dazzling feet and unerring composure in front of goal that everyone knows he is capable of to help him finally break his league duck for the season and wrap up a massive victory for BVB, which took them back into the Champions League qualification campaign, and perhaps more importantly potentially breathe new life into their campaign ahead of a testing trip to Leipzig.
RB Leipzig Bundesliga form: DWWDWW
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): WWWDWW
Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form: LDLWLW
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): WLWLWW
Team News
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New signing Dominik Szoboszlai will not be able to make his debut for Leipzig due to an abductor injury, with the Hungary winger likely to return to action in February.
Benjamin Henrichs, Ibrahima Konate, Konrad Laimer, Christopher Nkunku and Fabrice Hartmann are also all ruled out with injury, while Justin Kluivert and Nordi Mukiele are major doubts.
Dortmund appear to be more fortunate on the injury front, with only Thorgan Hazard and Marcel Schmelzer definitely ruled out of the trip to Leipzig.
Teenage sensations Youssoufa Moukoko and Jude Bellingham are injury doubts, though, so are unlikely to be risked in such a high-profile clash.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Adams, Orban, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Haidara, Kampl, Sabitzer; Olmo, Poulsen, Forsberg
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Witsel, Can; Sancho, Reus, Reyna; Haaland
We say: RB Leipzig 1-1 Borussia Dortmund
Leipzig have failed to win their last five meetings with Dortmund, and with the visitors looking improved since the departure of Favre, we can see them gaining another positive result against Nagelsmann's side.
Both sides have improved defensively this season so it could be a relatively cagey affair, with the sharpness of Haaland after his recent hamstring injury likely to have a huge bearing on the result.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.08%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.29%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
