A place in the semi-finals of the Taca de Portugal will be up for grabs on Wednesday when Rio Ave and Tondela go head to head at the Estadio dos Arcos.
The visitors head into the game without a win in three consecutive games against the Segunda Liga side since 2019 and will look to end this dry spell and keep their cup run alive and kicking.
Match preview
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After seeing their games against Covilha and Chaves postponed due to multiple COVID-19 cases, Rio Ave will take to the pitch for the first time this year on Wednesday.
The Segunda Liga side were last in action on December 23, when they saw off Belenenses on penalties to secure passage into the quarter-finals of the Taca de Portugal.
In that encounter, Pedro Nuno put O Belem ahead within the opening nine minutes before Hugo Gomes restored parity on the stroke of half time, and with nothing to separate the sides after extra time, Rio Ave grabbed a 6-5 win on penalties with Chima Akas failing to convert the decisive kick.
Prior to that, Miguel Cardoso's men ended their three-game losing streak when they had to grind out a hard-earned 1-0 win over Casa Pia in the Segunda Liga on December 19 courtesy of a 57th-minute strike from Pedro Mendes.
Rio Ave, who are currently fifth in the second tier with 27 points from 15 games, will now look to maintain their fine run in the Taca de Portugal, where they have netted 10 goals and conceded three in five games so far.
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Tondela, meanwhile, turned in a performance of the highest calibre when they came from behind to claim a 3-1 victory over Estoril Praia in the round of 16 on December 21.
After Leonardo Ruiz and Tiago Dantas scored for either side to end the first half level, Pako Ayestaran's side upped the ante after the interval as Juan Manuel Boselli and Daniel dos Anjos netted 17 minutes apart to turn the game around.
CTD Auriverdes head into Wednesday's game fresh off the back of a 1-1 draw with Boavista in the Primeira Liga where Salvador Agra and Jeriel De Santis scored for either side in the closing 20 minutes to force a share of the spoils.
Tondela have won five, drawn one and lost 11 of their 17 league games to collect 16 points and sit in 13th place on the log, level on points with Santa Clara and Vizela, and two points off the relegation playoff spot.
While they will be looking to immediately return to winning ways and continue their cup quest, next up is an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in each of the last three meetings between the sides, losing twice and picking up one draw since a 4-2 victory back in 2019.
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Team News
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After seeing his side struggle playing a three-man defence last time out, Freire could revert to his preferred 4-4-2 formation, with Pedro Amaral, Renato Pantalon, Aderllan Santos and Costinha shielding Vitoria de Guimaraes loanee Jhonatan in goal.
Further up the pitch, Pedro Mendes and Ze Manuel should spearhead the attack in front of Brazilian midfielder Gabrielzinho, who is currently the club's top scorer in the second tier with five goals.
Tondela, meanwhile, head into the game with a relatively full strength squad as the likes of Eduardo Quaresma, Tiago Dantas and Tiago Almeida are available for selection once again after missing the game at the weekend through COVID-19.
Jota Goncalves remains the only concern on the injury front after the Portuguese defender sustained a ruptured cruciate ligament back in September.
Joao Pedro currently leads the club's goalscoring charts with six goals — which have all come from the penalty spot — and we expect the 28-year-old midfielder to handle business at the centre of the park.
Rio Ave possible starting lineup:
Jhonatan; Amaral, Pantalon, Santos, Costinha; Savio, Gomes, Rodrigues, Gabrielzinho; Mendes, Ze Manuel
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Bebeto, Manu, Sagnan, Borges; Dantas, Augusto; Pepe, Agra, Barbosa; Anjos
We say: Rio Ave 1-0 Tondela
Tondela will look to make up for their somewhat disappointing league campaign by keeping their cup run alive. However, standing in their way is a Rio Ave side who will be fresh and ready to go following their two-week absence from action. Tondela have struggled on the road this season, picking up just two wins from their nine away games in all competitions. We are backing Rio Ave to stun the visitors and claim a narrow win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 52%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 24.07% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%).
