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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 38
Jun 4, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Spezia Calcio logo

Roma
2 - 1
Spezia

Zalewski (43'), Dybala (90+1' pen.)
Pellegrini (44'), Dybala (78')
Foti (15')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Nikolaou (6')
Esposito (14'), Nikolaou (58'), Zoet (66'), Amian (76'), Semplici (79+79'), Gyasi (86'), Wisniewski (90+7'), Shomurodov (90+12')
Amian (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Sevilla 1-1 Roma (4-1 pen.)
Wednesday, May 31 at 8pm in Europa League

Spezia

All competitions
Last Game: Spezia 0-4 Torino
Saturday, May 27 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: Roma 2-1 Spezia

 Despite Roma's heartache in midweek, Mourinho should be able to get his players motivated for one last push in what could be his late game in charge. Spezia's form has been woeful in 2023, and they are lucky that Verona's has been similarly poor, with a relegation playout looking likely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.91%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 13.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.11%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Roma in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Roma.

Result
RomaDrawSpezia
65.91% (0.33499999999999 0.33) 20.27% (-0.093 -0.09) 13.82% (-0.25 -0.25)
Both teams to score 47.55% (-0.357 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.34% (-0.133 -0.13)46.65% (0.123 0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.08% (-0.125 -0.13)68.92% (0.116 0.12)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.69% (0.054000000000002 0.05)13.3% (-0.062000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.86% (0.11799999999999 0.12)40.14% (-0.125 -0.13)
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.85% (-0.449 -0.45)45.15% (0.44 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.94% (-0.36 -0.36)81.05% (0.352 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Roma 65.91%
    Spezia 13.82%
    Draw 20.27%
RomaDrawSpezia
2-0 @ 12.22% (0.12 0.12)
1-0 @ 12.11% (0.09 0.09)
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 8.22% (0.099 0.1)
3-1 @ 6.53% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.14% (0.059 0.06)
4-1 @ 3.3% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.6% (-0.032 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.67% (0.028 0.03)
5-1 @ 1.33% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.31% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 65.91%
1-1 @ 9.63% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.01% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 3.86% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 20.27%
0-1 @ 4.78% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-2 @ 3.83% (-0.066 -0.07)
0-2 @ 1.9% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.02% (-0.028 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.02% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.27%
Total : 13.82%

How you voted: Roma vs Spezia

Roma
74.0%
Draw
16.9%
Spezia
9.1%
77
Head to Head
Jan 22, 2023 5pm
gameweek 19
Spezia
0-2
Roma
El Shaarawy (45'), Abraham (49')
Feb 27, 2022 5.05pm
gameweek 27
Spezia
0-1
Roma

Agudelo (30'), Amian (39'), Kiwior (86'), Maggiore (90+7')
Amian (45')
Abraham (90+9' pen.)
Mancini (45+3'), Kumbulla (64'), Zaniolo (90+5')
Dec 13, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 17
Roma
2-0
Spezia
Smalling (6'), Ibanez (56')
Vina (54'), Kumbulla (65'), Afena-Gyan (70')
Afena-Gyan (90+3')

Gyasi (90+2')
May 23, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 38
Spezia
2-2
Roma
Verde (6'), Pobega (38')
El Shaarawy (52'), Mkhitaryan (85')
Kumbulla (90+4')
Jan 23, 2021 2pm
gameweek 19
Roma
4-3
Spezia
Mayoral (17', 52'), Karsdorp (55'), Pellegrini (90+2')
Peres (87'), Mayoral (87'), Pellegrini (90+3')
Piccoli (24'), Farias (59'), Verde (90')
Chabot (21')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli20152332122047
2Inter Milan19135148173144
3Atalanta BCAtalanta20134344212343
4Lazio2011363428636
5Juventus20713032171534
6Fiorentina1995532201232
7AC Milan1987429191031
8Bologna197932925430
9Udinese207582328-526
10Roma206682826224
11Genoa205871727-1023
12Torino205782025-522
13Empoli204881925-620
14Lecce2055101432-1820
15Parma204792535-1019
16Como204792233-1119
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2061132444-2019
18CagliariCagliari2046101933-1418
19VeneziaVenezia2035121833-1514
20Monza2027111928-913
> Serie A Full Table


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