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Bayern logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 21, 2020 at 8pm UK
Allianz Arena
Atletico Madrid logo

Bayern
4 - 0
Atletico

Coman (28', 72'), Goretzka (41'), Tolisso (66')
Alaba (5'), Muller (21')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Lodi (43'), Koke (44'), Herrera (45+1'), Torreira (90+2')

Preview: Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League fixture between Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid, including team news and predicted lineups.

Bayern Munich begin the defence of their Champions League trophy with a showdown against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday evening.

The visitors make the trip to the Allianz Arena looking to avoid a second successive defeat to Bundesliga opposition after losing to RB Leipzig in last season's quarter-finals.


Match preview

Bayern Munich boss Hansi Flick pictured on August 22, 2020© Reuters

A consequence of Bayern's run to Champions League glory at the end of the last campaign was a reduced off-season, leaving just a three-and-a-half-week gap between the final and their 2020-21 Bundesliga opener.

Bayern have been far from their best, already suffering a surprise 4-1 defeat at the hands of Hoffenheim, but four successive wins have been recorded in all competitions either side of the international break.

Such was the tight schedule that Bayern had to play twice in 48 hours last week, and a three-day gap ahead of this showdown is certainly not ideal for Flick and his players.

Nevertheless, there will equally be a desire to find some consistency, particularly in defence after conceding 11 goals across their last half-a-dozen matches.

At the other end of the pitch, Robert Lewandowski has been in phenomenal form, already contributing seven goals and three assists from just 299 minutes of football.

While Atletico have had a much less hectic start to the season, Diego Simeone has witnessed his side already drop points to Huesca and Villarreal respectively.

Given the inconsistencies of every team in La Liga, Atletico will go top of the table if they win their games in hand, but their boss will naturally want to see improvements in the final third.

Luis Suarez is still settling into life at Wanda Metropolitano, although the Uruguayan star has already chipped in with three goals and an assist from four appearances.

Providing that he eventually receives assistance from Atletico's other flair players, last season's quarter-finalists look in good shape to challenge for silverware this season.

Los Rojiblancos have gone 273 minutes without conceding a goal ahead of squaring off against European football's most ruthless attack.

Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WLWWWW

Atletico Madrid form (all competitions): WDDW


Team News

Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone pictured in March 2020© Reuters

Simeone will likely hand another start to Lucas Torreira, who impressed on his Atletico debut against Celta Vigo.

Given the magnitude of the task at the Allianz Arena, the more defensive-minded Marcos Llorente could get the nod over Angel Correa.

Joao Felix should partner Suarez in attack with Diego Costa having been ruled out through injury.

Flick is unlikely to tinker with his current Bayern XI, meaning that Alphonso Davies could be named on the substitutes' bench.

Kingsley Coman and Douglas Costa should line up in the wide positions after Serge Gnabry tested positive for coronavirus.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Alaba, Hernandez; Tolisso, Goretzka; Costa, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Trippier, Savic, Felipe, Lodi; Llorente, Torreira, Koke, Carrasco; Suarez, Felix


SM words green background

We say: Bayern Munich 3-1 Atletico Madrid

While neither team have produced their best form during a hectic start to the season, we cannot look past the home side. Flick and his players will be motivated to retain their trophy this season, and that desire could lead to a statement performance being produced on Wednesday evening.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 61.63%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 13.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.56%) and 2-1 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.11%), while for an Atletico Madrid win it was 0-1 (6.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Game History

Who will win Wednesday's Champions League clash between Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid?

Bayern Munich
66.7%
Draw
33.3%
Atletico Madrid
0.0%
3
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Atletico Madrid midfielder Thomas Partey pictured in March 2020
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