Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 50.29%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 25.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest would win this match.