MX23RW : Wednesday, May 1 10:15:54| >> :300:86500:86500:
Augsburg logo
Leverkusen logo
Bayern logo
Dortmund logo
Borussia Monchengladbach logo
Eintracht Frankfurt logo
Koln logo
Freiburg logo
Heidenheim
Hoffenheim logo
Mainz logo
Leipzig logo
SV Darmstadt
Stuttgart
Union Berlin logo
VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen logo
Wolfsburg
Bundesliga desktop header

Bundesliga
Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 8
Oct 21, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
OPEL ARENA
Bayern logo

Mainz
1 - 3
Bayern

Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 2-2 Mainz
Friday, October 6 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Freiburg
Sunday, October 8 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 0-2 Bayern Munich

 Even with half an eye on Tuesday's Champions League clash with Galatasaray, it should be a straightforward matter for Bayern Munich to halt their losing streak in Mainz this weekend. While the champions can score from all angles, their hosts have been awful at the back this term and cannot hope to keep Bayern at bay for a full 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.74%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.54%) and 0-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.82%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
13.1% (0.221 0.22) 17.16% (0.192 0.19) 69.74% (-0.416 -0.42)
Both teams to score 56.57% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.15% (-0.398 -0.4)33.85% (0.397 0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.3% (-0.454 -0.45)55.7% (0.452 0.45)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.98% (0.058 0.06)38.02% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.21% (0.057000000000002 0.06)74.79% (-0.057999999999993 -0.06)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.27% (-0.193 -0.19)8.72% (0.1919 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70% (-0.47199999999999 -0.47)30% (0.47 0.47)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 13.1%
    Bayern Munich 69.74%
    Draw 17.16%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.78% (0.055 0.06)
1-0 @ 3.21% (0.071 0.07)
2-0 @ 1.55% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.49% (0.011 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.22% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 13.1%
1-1 @ 7.82% (0.102 0.1)
2-2 @ 4.61% (0.026000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.32% (0.068 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.21% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 17.16%
0-2 @ 9.87% (0.025 0.03)
1-2 @ 9.54% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-1 @ 8.09% (0.094 0.09)
0-3 @ 8.02% (-0.052999999999999 -0.05)
1-3 @ 7.76% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-4 @ 4.89% (-0.077 -0.08)
1-4 @ 4.73% (-0.067 -0.07)
2-3 @ 3.75% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-5 @ 2.39% (-0.06 -0.06)
1-5 @ 2.31% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-4 @ 2.29% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-5 @ 1.12% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-6 @ 0.97% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-6 @ 0.94% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 69.74%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
8.0%
Draw
8.0%
Bayern Munich
84.0%
50
Head to Head
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
> Preview
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
> Preview
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 12
Bayern
6-2
Mainz
Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 32
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
> Preview
Dec 11, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 15
Bayern
2-1
Mainz
Coman (53'), Musiala (74')
Musiala (27'), Sane (36'), Hernandez (56')
Onisiwo (22')
Stach (59'), Hack (89'), Stoger (90+1')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen31256077225581
2Bayern MunichBayern31223689385169
3Stuttgart31204770383264
4RB Leipzig31195773353862
5Borussia DortmundDortmund31169659392057
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt31111284742545
7Freiburg31117134355-1240
8Augsburg31109124852-439
9Hoffenheim31116145563-839
10Heidenheim31910124452-837
11Werder Bremen31107144150-937
12Wolfsburg3197153751-1434
13Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach31711135360-732
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin3186172650-2430
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum31612133762-2530
16Mainz 05Mainz31513133249-1728
17FC Koln31411162454-3023
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3138203073-4317
> Bundesliga Full Table


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!