Werder Bremen continue to leak goals on a regular basis under Werner's tutelage, and that looks unlikely to change against one of Germany's strongest sides, especially with Stark and Pieper both likely to miss out through injury for the visitors.
After coming through Werder Bremen's youth system before returning to enjoy four hugely successful years with the club, Fullkrug may be emotionally conflicted ahead of this fixture, but we still expect him to help fire Dortmund to a relatively comfortable victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 69.18%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 14.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.89%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 1-2 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.01) 
