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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 51.86%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 23.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
Result | ||
Union Berlin | Draw | Hoffenheim |
51.86% ( -1.27) | 24.35% ( 0.21) | 23.78% ( 1.06) |
Both teams to score 52.56% ( 0.59) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.88% ( 0.17) | 49.12% ( -0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.81% ( 0.16) | 71.19% ( -0.15) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.08% ( -0.43) | 18.92% ( 0.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.58% ( -0.72) | 50.42% ( 0.72) |
Hoffenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.83% ( 1.07) | 35.17% ( -1.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.07% ( 1.1) | 71.92% ( -1.1) |
Score Analysis |
Union Berlin | Draw | Hoffenheim |
1-0 @ 11.07% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.22% ( -0.32) 3-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 5.12% ( -0.25) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 3.14% Total : 51.85% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.35% | 0-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.02% Total : 23.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 13 | 35 | 39 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 23 | 17 | 35 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 30 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 30 |
5 | Mainz 05Mainz | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 28 |
6 | Freiburg | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 27 |
7 | Stuttgart | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 26 |
8 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 25 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 25 |
10 | Wolfsburg | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 24 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 24 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 16 |
14 | St Pauli | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 14 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 14 |
16 | Heidenheim | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 13 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 11 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 37 | -24 | 6 |
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