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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.
Result | ||
Werder Bremen | Draw | Union Berlin |
40.99% ( -0.11) | 26.53% ( -0.05) | 32.47% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 51.79% ( 0.19) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.02% ( 0.23) | 52.98% ( -0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.42% ( 0.19) | 74.58% ( -0.19) |
Werder Bremen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.53% ( 0.04) | 25.47% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.69% ( 0.06) | 60.3% ( -0.06) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.49% ( 0.22) | 30.51% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.27% ( 0.26) | 66.73% ( -0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Werder Bremen | Draw | Union Berlin |
1-0 @ 10.62% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.31% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.35% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0) Other @ 2.41% Total : 40.98% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.53% | 0-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.13% Total : 32.48% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 56 | 15 | 41 | 45 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 44 | 24 | 20 | 41 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
4 | Stuttgart | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 26 | 10 | 32 |
5 | RB Leipzig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 31 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 28 |
7 | Wolfsburg | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 27 |
8 | Freiburg | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 27 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 26 |
10 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 25 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 24 |
12 | Augsburg | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 22 |
13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 20 |
14 | St Pauli | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 17 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 17 |
16 | Heidenheim | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 14 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 11 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 10 |
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