Home > Football > Bundesliga
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.
Result | ||
Werder Bremen | Draw | Union Berlin |
40.99% ( -0.11) | 26.53% ( -0.05) | 32.47% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 51.79% ( 0.19) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.02% ( 0.23) | 52.98% ( -0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.42% ( 0.19) | 74.58% ( -0.19) |
Werder Bremen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.53% ( 0.04) | 25.47% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.69% ( 0.06) | 60.3% ( -0.06) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.49% ( 0.22) | 30.51% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.27% ( 0.26) | 66.73% ( -0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Werder Bremen | Draw | Union Berlin |
1-0 @ 10.62% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.31% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.35% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0) Other @ 2.41% Total : 40.98% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.53% | 0-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.13% Total : 32.48% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 47 | 13 | 34 | 36 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 27 |
5 | Mainz 05Mainz | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
6 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 25 |
7 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
8 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 24 |
9 | Freiburg | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 24 |
10 | Stuttgart | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Wolfsburg | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 16 |
14 | St Pauli | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
16 | Heidenheim | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 8 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 35 | -22 | 6 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |