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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Luton Town |
56.15% ( 0.04) | 22.67% ( -0.02) | 21.18% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 54.58% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.19% ( 0.07) | 44.81% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.83% ( 0.07) | 67.16% ( -0.07) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.22% ( 0.04) | 15.78% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.09% ( 0.07) | 44.91% ( -0.07) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.81% ( 0.02) | 35.19% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.05% ( 0.03) | 71.94% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Luton Town |
1-0 @ 10.25% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.47% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.83% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 56.14% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.67% | 0-1 @ 5.8% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.03% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 21.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 48 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 15 | 26 | 45 |
3 | Burnley | 22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 44 |
4 | Sunderland | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 43 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 35 |
7 | Watford | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 32 |
10 | Millwall | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 28 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 27 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 26 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 25 |
15 | Luton TownLuton | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 25 |
16 | Derby CountyDerby | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 24 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 22 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 23 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
20 | Portsmouth | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 20 |
21 | Hull City | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 19 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 18 |
23 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 18 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 18 |
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