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FA Cup
Burton Albion
FA Cup | First Round
Nov 2, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pirelli Stadium

Burton Albion
1 - 0
Scarborough Ath

Kalinauskas (68')
Tear (62'), Orsi (74'), Sweeney (90+1'), Orsi (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Gooda (27'), Tear (50'), Willis (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Burton Albion and Scarborough Athletic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last Game: Cambridge 1-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in League One

Scarborough Athletic

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Marine AFC 0-1 Scarborough Ath
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League North

We said: Burton Albion 2-1 Scarborough Athletic

 Low on confidence due to their League One struggles, Burton could be unnerved by a shaky start at the Pirelli Stadium against non-league opposition. That being said, the Brewers should have too much quality for Scarborough, who could be having nightmares about Orsi and Bodin on Saturday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Scarborough Athletic had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Scarborough Athletic win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burton Albion would win this match.

Result
Burton AlbionDrawScarborough Athletic
48.43% (0.36199999999999 0.36) 23.82% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01) 27.75% (-0.362 -0.36)
Both teams to score 58.11% (-0.269 -0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.43% (-0.22799999999999 -0.23)43.56% (0.221 0.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.04% (-0.223 -0.22)65.95% (0.215 0.22)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.87% (0.052000000000007 0.05)18.13% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.91% (0.091999999999999 0.09)49.08% (-0.099999999999994 -0.1)
Scarborough Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.98% (-0.381 -0.38)29.02% (0.373 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.08% (-0.467 -0.47)64.92% (0.46000000000001 0.46)
Score Analysis
    Burton Albion 48.43%
    Scarborough Athletic 27.75%
    Draw 23.82%
Burton AlbionDrawScarborough Athletic
2-1 @ 9.49% (0.029 0.03)
1-0 @ 8.98% (0.104 0.1)
2-0 @ 7.67% (0.102 0.1)
3-1 @ 5.4% (0.026 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.37% (0.066 0.07)
3-2 @ 3.34% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.31% (0.015 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.86% (0.032 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.43% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 48.43%
1-1 @ 11.11% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.87% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.26% (0.051 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.38% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 23.82%
1-2 @ 6.88% (-0.063 -0.06)
0-1 @ 6.51% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 4.03% (-0.045 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.84% (-0.056 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.42% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.66% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 3.42%
Total : 27.75%

How you voted: Burton Albion vs Scarborough Ath

Burton Albion
58.8%
Draw
5.9%
Scarborough Athletic
35.3%
17
rhs 2.0
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