Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 64.91%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.57%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 9-1 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.