Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.37%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 25.34% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.67%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.